Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Predictive Analysis Support

NCMS Project #: 140447


Problem: The Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Joint Program Office (JPO) requires continued total life cycle analysis support and utilization of the MRAP fleet operations, maintenance and support models.

Predictive modeling requirements for MRAP JPO include forecasting of accurate life cycle sustainment requirements to maximize vehicle availability while striving to minimize associated life cycle costs. Accurate forecasting and comprehensive tradeoff analysis capabilities are essential in development of Business Case Assessments (BCAs) necessary to justify the future adaptation of life cycle Performance Based Agreements between industry and the MRAP JPO, to estimate organic maintenance requirements, to shape sustainment efforts and to evaluate engineering change proposals.


  • Minimize unnecessary component replacement by determining best course of action (CoA) during Inspect/Repair Only As Necessary (IROAN) cycles
  • Demonstrate impact of predicted effect on corrective maintenance without reset
  • Determine impact on fleet readiness and overall operating costs

Solution/Approach: The Total Life Cycle Systems Management Assessment Software Tool (TLCM-AT) is a high-resolution, discrete event, stochastic simulation platform designed specifically for representing the full-system life cycle of vehicle fleets. A system (or “platform”) is viewed as a hierarchical structure. The system structure consists of line replaceable units (LRUs) which are composed of modules, assemblies or shop replaceable units (SRUs). Modules, assemblies or SRUs are made up of parts, with parts being made up of subparts. Once the initial results are reviewed, a simulation experiment design is applied along with sensitivity analysis to determine if other variables played a significant role in the model.

Impact on Warfighter:

  • Reduce total ownership costs of systems
  • Maximize fleet readiness and operational availability
  • Predict, plan and optimize spare part purchases, engineering changes, unit repair and secondary repair capabilities

DOD Participation:

  • S. Marine Corps – Joint Program Office

Industry Participation:

  • Clockwork Solutions, Inc. (CSI)
  • National Center for Manufacturing Sciences (NCMS)

Final Report